Oscars The Oscar nominees were announced today, so let's talk Oscars...

(NOTE: I haven't seen all of the nominated films, so some of my guesses are based solely on the buzz. I'm not providing comments on the various minor categories.)

Best Picture: Essentially there is a tie for the frontrunner status between Atonement and No Country for Old Men. The Academy will likely give Atonement the Oscar for Best Picture, since it's a more conventional story and a romance. It likely has more mass appeal.

Best Director: Joel and Ethan Coen will win the Oscar for Best Director for No Country for Old Men. Atonement will not sweep the awards.

Best Leading Actor: Daniel Day Lewis will bring home another one. Johnny Depp may surprise me, however.

Best Leading Actress: This one is too close to call. I believe that Ellen Page deserves it, but I also think that winning an Oscar at the age of 20 is a curse. Therefore, I actually hope she doesn't win. The nomination alone will cement her place as one of the two best young actresses working today. (The other one is Evan Rachel Wood.) Marion Cotillard will win this category.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Ronald Harwood -- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Best Original Screenplay: - Juno will take this as a consolation prize, having lost both Best Picture and Best Actress.

Best Supporting Actor: We have the first real lock of the year: Javier Bardem will win this one, hands down. Others need not apply.

Best Supporting Actress: This one is too close to call, but I'm favoring Amy Ryan for Gone Baby Gone.

Achievement in Cinematography: - It's a tie between There Will be Blood and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, which is my pick.

Achievement in Film Editing: - I don't have a clue. If I had to pick one, I would go with No Country for Old Men, or, more likely, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.